Whenever I talk to people about the future, Im struck by their belief that it is knowable. The impression I get is that most people imagine the future like a book ending: already written and readable if you can just steal a quick look at the last few pages. What they find difficult is accepting that the pages arent written yet. The future hasnt happened, hasnt even been planned--and cannot be known because it doesnt exist.每次我跟人想起“未来”，我都被他们对“未来是由此可知”的这一点子吓到。我的印象就是，大部分人都想象未来像书本一样，有一个结局：早已写出好了、也可以加载。你只要较慢地窥一眼这本书的最后几页就能告诉。他们很难拒绝接受这最后几页显然没写完。

未来还没再次发生、也没计划好——也无法预见，因为它们还显然不不存在。So I dont know what will happen in 2014--and neither does anyone else. What I imagine, though, looks like this:所以我不告诉2014不会再次发生什么——谁也不告诉。但在我的想象中，它不会是这样的：1. Technausea. 科技反感症。

Todays and tomorrows technology sits on top of multiple layers, every one of which is changing and has to inter-operate with others. This makes our gadgets, the internet of things, phones and laptops unstable. And it makes consumers irritated. How many of your apps actually work--and actually make life easier, faster or more fun? Id expect to see consumer cynicism grow, as delight is overtaken by disappointment. This will put pressure on hardware and software developers to deliver that most boring of qualities: reliability.现今和未来的科技都基于多重技术，而每一种技术都在再次发生着转变、并和其他技术交互。这让我们的科技产品，看起来互联网的东西、电话、笔记本等等显得不平稳，这同时也让消费者深感反感。就说道说道你们手机里的应用于，有多少你是确实在用的？又有多少确实能让你的生活逆非常简单、逆快捷、显得更加有意思？我指出消费者回应的讽刺情绪不会下降，科技带来他们的愉悦感不会被沮丧所代替。

这不会给硬件和软件的开发者导致压力，从而让他们执着最无趣的产品品质：稳定性。2. Mobile overtakes the web.移动末端代替网页末端。

Most technology developers are seeing app use grow and web use decline. That means companies have to have strong, fast, meaningful mobile platforms and those that dont lose customers.大部分的科技从业人员都指出移动应用于不会发展、而电脑应用于不会弱化。这意味著企业都必须强大、快捷和简单的移动平台，不推崇这点的企业必定不会丧失消费者。3. Tablets meet viruses.平板电脑的病毒经常出现。

As PC use declines, infecting them with viruses just wont be as much fun any more. Id expect to see malware, worms and viruses jump onto tablets and phones. As a consequence, we will all have to start protecting our devices more assiduously.随着PC端的消失，再行用病毒反击他们就没有那么有意思了。我指出恶意软件、蠕虫病毒和其他病毒都会迅速侵略平板和手机。

结果就是，我们要更加卖力地维护自己的设备。4. Manufacturing wont save the economy.制造业也救回没法经济。Im pleased to see manufacturing jobs returning to the U.S., but I dont expect the manufacturing industry to have the galvanic effect on the economy that many hope for. Why? Because automation will sharply erode the number of jobs any factory requires. The disappearance of blue-collar and entry-level jobs is already a problem, and that problem will grow.我很高兴看见制造业的工作机会又重返美国市场，但我不指出它不会像很多人希望的那样，产生原电池效应解救经济。

为什么？因为制造业中的很多工作机会都被机械化的自动生产代替了。蓝领阶层和基础职位的消失早已出了一个问题，而这个问题还将之后不断扩大。5. Women keep rising.女性地位之后下降。The appointment of Inga Beale to run Lloyds of London and of Mary Barra to run General Motors marked an encouraging end to 2013. Progress for women in the coming year will continue to be too little and too slow, but you should expect to see women in positions of power and influence everywhere. Even Japan is starting to try to get women into work.Inga Beale兼任伦敦劳埃德保险公司CEO，Mary Barra 兼任通用汽车高级副总裁，这些都为2013年的女性地位写了浓墨重彩的一笔。

接下来的一年，女性地位还将之后发展，但进展不会较慢而微小，但你一定能平常看见女性的权力和影响力。再行怎么说，就连日本都开始希望女性工作了呢。6. Gene therapy comes good.基因疗法发展较好。

After decades of promise, new gene therapies are starting to deliver real results. Like all new therapies, communicating accurately how and where it works will prove as challenging as the treatment itself.在经历了长约几十年的许诺后，新的基因疗法再一开始有了一些现实的好成果。不过就像所有的新型疗法一样，基因疗法必须向公众精确地传送如何化疗以及化疗背后的原理，这和疗法本身一样具备挑战性。

7. Trust will remain the single most critical business issue.信任感仍然不会是商业领域中唯一且最关键的问题。Do your customers trust you? Do they know what you do with their data and are they happy with it? This will be a major issue not just for the N.S.A., Microsoft and Google. Nor will Google Glass be the only product to provoke debate. Trust reduces the cost of doing business and those who dont build relationships of trust with their partners, suppliers and customers will feel the pinch.你的消费者信任你吗？他们告诉你都拿他们的个人信息干嘛去了吗？你这么做到他们高兴吗？这某种程度是美国国家安全局、微软公司和谷歌的问题。

谷歌眼镜也会是唯一一个引起争辩的产品。如果你和你的顾客之间有充足的信任，这不会减少你经商的成本；反之，那些不推崇与合伙人、供应商和消费者创建信任关系的企业则不会为之所累。

本文来源：金年会金字招牌信誉至上-www.huilihang.com